Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 24.226175 28.765136 34.434262 42.237026 53.048492 68.100772 91.895518
2024-12-22 18.413699 23.248902 29.932571 40.378410 57.481013 87.194508 152.034821
2024-12-29 15.637340 20.552031 27.826950 40.291702 63.583577 112.964274 266.871329
2025-01-05 13.370859 18.001730 25.150604 38.145482 64.738385 130.374893 416.545778
2025-01-12 11.541977 15.772771 22.478400 35.142474 62.701866 138.726074 584.968820
2025-01-19 10.222787 14.140004 20.484132 32.855146 61.249853 148.048067 857.916136
2025-01-26 10.379207 14.837549 22.503415 38.894848 83.201559 277.527340 18247.981009
2025-02-02 10.025953 14.635800 22.875810 41.634002 98.858703 447.221918 NaN
2025-02-09 9.165624 13.466614 21.248169 39.321276 96.740875 493.283169 NaN
2025-02-16 8.841239 13.194674 21.307357 41.115172 111.065634 818.383897 NaN
2025-02-23 8.390311 12.648501 20.737905 41.159435 118.857701 1214.126721 NaN
2025-03-02 7.983386 12.143085 20.182545 41.105132 126.561964 1907.523640 NaN
2025-03-09 7.640461 11.755580 19.888101 41.922411 141.256015 4540.946193 NaN
2025-03-16 7.135512 11.024881 18.774655 40.091234 139.965384 6823.797298 NaN
2025-03-23 6.806379 10.599487 18.275354 40.005998 149.876990 26589.857882 NaN
2025-03-30 6.375043 9.946511 17.200817 37.882414 144.460418 43802.793207 NaN
2025-04-06 5.923295 9.228594 15.923499 34.909955 131.358651 26245.749052 NaN
2025-04-13 5.550748 8.644992 14.907876 32.645030 122.416633 22273.400849 NaN
2025-04-20 5.719094 9.116545 16.319029 38.623966 185.181189 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 5.663620 9.141166 16.701610 41.333902 232.897414 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 5.364705 8.654990 15.802055 39.045912 218.687169 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 5.279316 8.597973 15.947103 40.820683 263.035003 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 5.120766 8.380106 15.669948 40.864469 285.013550 NaN NaN